On June 28, the Membre of European Parliament voted to ban internal combustion engine vehicles1 in 2035. Only the marketing of cars powered by a “climate neutral” fuel will be allowed. This resolution will lead to the electrification of our mobility and will impact the electricity production, which could diversify and become decentralized. If all cars became electric, what would be the impact on electricity consumption?
Thermal, electric and hybrid vehicles... What is their place in the French car fleet?
Greenhouse gas emissions by sector in 2019
Transportation is responsible for nearly one-third of national greenhouse gas emissions2. In 2019, it was the most emitting sector. Private vehicles are responsible for more than half of the sector’s emissions3, or 16% of national emissions.
In 2020, the car fleet consisted of 38.4 million cars, 98% of which are powered by fossil fuel4 , with a carbon intensity of 19.2 kg CO2 per 100 km driven. In comparison, electric vehicles emit 1.2 kg of CO2 per 100 km5, 16 times less than a combustion vehicle. This reduced carbon footprint in use, with a suitable battery and a light vehicle, was the reason for the European institutions’ decision.
Greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector by type of trip in 2019 (Mt CO2e)
Greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector by type of trip in 2019 (Mt CO2e)
In 2020, the car fleet consisted of 38.4 million cars, 98% of which are powered by fossil fuel4, with a carbon intensity of 19.2 kg CO2 per 100 km driven. In comparison, electric vehicles emit 1.2 kg of CO2 per 100 km5, 16 times less than a combustion vehicle. This reduced carbon footprint in use, with a suitable battery and a light vehicle, was the reason for the European institutions’ decision.
What if all cars became electric in 2050?
Let’s imagine that in 2050, there are only
electric cars in circulation in France. What would be the additional demand for
electricity if we converted all the thermal cars in the fleet in 2020 into
their electric counterparts? What would be the impact of an electrification
of our mobility systems on our energy use?
Part of each energy in the electricity production in 2019
An additional need of 150 TWh/ year
Assuming that it takes 20 kWh to travel 100 km and that each car travels 20,000 km each year, the annual consumption of an electric car is 4 000 kWh. In 2020, around 38 million of internal thermic combustion engines was on the road. If they all become electric by 2050, 150 TWh will be necessary to power them. Since the amount of electricity produced in 2019 was 532 TWh in 20196, meeting the needs of the electric vehicles would be equivalent to increasing production by 30%.
150 TWh, okay but how?
In 2019, 71% of the electricity produced in France came from nuclear power, 20% from renewable energies. The law on Energy Transition and Green Growth (LTECV) provides for a cap on nuclear power at 50%7 in 2025, thanks to the increase and diversification of renewable energy.
How to produce 150 TWh more each year? Which sources should be favored? To illustrate the amount of electricity to be supplied, each source is studied separately. In order to facilitate the calculations, we have not taken into account the storage of renewable energies.
Part of each energy in the electricity production in 2019
An additional need of 150 TWh/ year
Assuming that it takes 20 kWh to travel 100 km and that each car travels 20,000 km each year, the annual consumption of an electric car is 4 000 kWh. In 2020, around 38 million of internal thermic combustion engines was on the road. If they all become electric by 2050, 150 TWh will be necessary to power them. Since the amount of electricity produced in 2019 was 532 TWh in 20196, meeting the needs of the electric vehicles would be equivalent to increasing production by 30%.
150 TWh, okay but how?
In 2019, 71% of the electricity produced in France came from nuclear power, 20% from renewable energies. The law on Energy Transition and Green Growth (LTECV) provides for a cap on nuclear power at 50%7 in 2025, thanks to the increase and diversification of renewable energy.
How to produce 150 TWh more each year? Which sources should be favored? To illustrate the amount of electricity to be supplied, each source is studied separately. In order to facilitate the calculations, we have not taken into account the storage of renewable energies.
In the case of all nuclear power
In 2020, 56 nuclear reactors were in operation and produced 380 TWh of electricity. Assuming that the power of each of these reactors is similar, we can estimate that one nuclear reactor produces about 6.7 TWh in one year. Thus, to produce 150 TWh per year, 22 reactors are needed, for a total of 78 reactors in 2050.
If one nuclear reactor were installed every 5 years, the objective would be reached in 2140.
Furthermore, the LTECV limits French nuclear power to 63 GW7. As the power needed to reach 150 TWh/year is an additional 85 GW, it is impossible to rely on this source of electricity alone.
In the case of all wind power
Approximately 8,800 wind turbines produced
35 TWh of electricity in 20208 . Using the same
reasoning as above, an additional 37,750 wind turbines would need to be
installed to produce the 150 TWh that electric vehicles would use each year.
With an installation rate of 1.2 GW per year9,
it would take until 2080 to reach the generation needed to run electric
vehicles, 30 years after the 2050 target date.
In the case of all nuclear power
In 2020, 56 nuclear reactors were in operation and produced 380 TWh of electricity. Assuming that the power of each of these reactors is similar, we can estimate that one nuclear reactor produces about 6.7 TWh in one year. Thus, to produce 150 TWh per year, 22 reactors are needed, for a total of 78 reactors in 2050.
If one nuclear reactor were installed every 5 years, the objective would be reached in 2140.
Furthermore, the LTECV limits French nuclear power to 63 GW7. As the power needed to reach 150 TWh/year is an additional 85 GW, it is impossible to rely on this source of electricity alone.
In the case of all wind power
Approximately 8,800 wind turbines produced 35 TWh of electricity in 20208 . Using the same reasoning as above, an additional 37,750 wind turbines would need to be installed to produce the 150 TWh that electric vehicles would use each year.
With an installation rate of 1.2 GW per year9, it would take until 2080 to reach the generation needed to run electric vehicles, 30 years after the 2050 target date.
In the case of all solar power
The equivalent of 40 km² of solar panels were installed in 2020 for a production of 12 TWh9. 1 km² of solar panels can produce about 0.3 TWh. Thus, in order to produce 150 TWh in 2050, 500 million additional m² will have to be installed. If we continue with the current rate of 0.9 GW/year9, the targeted production will only be reached in 2165.
In the case of all nuclear power
In 2020, 56 nuclear reactors were in operation
and produced 380 TWh of electricity. Assuming that the power of each of these
reactors is similar, we can estimate that one nuclear reactor produces about
6.7 TWh in one year. Thus, to produce 150 TWh per year, 22 reactors are
needed, for a total of 78 reactors in 2050.
If one nuclear reactor were installed every 5
years, the objective would be reached in 2140.
Furthermore, the LTECV limits French nuclear
power to 63 GW7. As the power needed to reach 150
TWh/year is an additional 85 GW, it is impossible to rely on this source of
electricity alone.
In the case of all wind power
Approximately 8,800 wind turbines produced 35 TWh of electricity in 20208 . Using the same reasoning as above, an additional 37,750 wind turbines would need to be installed to produce the 150 TWh that electric vehicles would use each year.
With an installation rate of 1.2 GW per year9, it would take until 2080 to reach the generation needed to run electric vehicles, 30 years after the 2050 target date.
In the case of all solar power
The equivalent of 40 km² of solar panels were installed in 2020 for a production of 12 TWh9. 1 km² of solar panels can produce about 0.3 TWh. Thus, in order to produce 150 TWh in 2050, 500 million additional m² will have to be installed. If we continue with the current rate of 0.9 GW/year9, the targeted production will only be reached in 2165.
To conclude
A considerable demand
Replacing the fleet of thermal vehicles with electric vehicles will result in a significant increase in the demand for electricity. At the current rate of installation, it is not possible to meet this demand, regardless of the source of electricity studied. The diversity of the energy mix is therefore essential to ensure the optimization of the number of installations. However, at the current rate of installation, by 2050 6 reactors could be installed, 18,000 wind turbines and 100 km² of solar panels, for an additional production of 135 TWh. Assuming that all of this additional electricity is only for electric mobility, there would still be a shortfall of 15 TWh. In any case, this increase in electricity demand is not in line with the sober trajectory put forward in the Law for Energy Transition and Green Growth.
On the way to all-electricity?
In addition to the increase in demand, other issues must be taken into account in the transition to all-electricity: the availability of resources to build production units and lithium batteries, the availability of charging stations, etc. These issues call into question our modes of production and consumption, and more particularly invite us to rethink the ways in which we travel. This rethinking also involves adapting infrastructures. For example, public transport networks should be developed and made accessible to a larger part of the population.
And what about WIND my ROOF?
This also shows that to meet this growing demand for electricity, all means of production must be taken into consideration. In particular, the development of decentralized energies, such as our rooftop wind turbines. By producing clean electricity locally, these solutions contribute to increasing the energy autonomy of buildings!
To go further
Tension on raw materials
Preconceived ideas about electric cars
Availability of charging stations for electric car
Tension on raw materials
Preconceived ideas about electric cars
Availability of charging stations for electric car
Sources
Image crédit
Image crédit : Gerd Altmann. https://pixabay.com/fr/photos/station-de-charge-elektrotankstelle-4636710/
MP's vote
[1] MEPs vote to ban combustion engine vehicles
in 2035 (accessed on 9 September 2022) https://www.vie-publique.fr/en-bref/285406-les-eurodeputes-votent-linterdiction-des-moteurs-thermiques-en-2035
GHGs' emissions
[2] Distribution of GHG emissions by sector in 2019 (accessed September 7, 2022) https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/2015759#tableau-figure1
[3] Transportation GHG emissions in 2019 (accessed September 7, 2022) Émissions de GES des transports | Chiffres clés du climat 2022 (developpement-durable.gouv.fr)
Car fleet's emissions
[4] Passenger car fleet by energy type as of January 1, 2020 (accessed September 6, 2022) : Données sur le parc automobile français au 1er janvier 2021 | Données et études statistiques (developpement-durable.gouv.fr). Data used: parc_voitures_particulieres_2011_a_2021.xlsx (live.com)
[5] Detailed calculation of emissions from gasoline, diesel and electric vehicles.
Sources :
- Electricity consumption of an electric car (accessed on September 7, 2022) En 2040, le réseau pourra-t-il tenir la consommation des véhicules électriques ? (selectra.info)
- Average fuel consumption of a private thermal car in 2019 (accessed September 7, 2022) Consommation essence des voitures : évolution depuis 2004 | Statista
- Emission factors ADEME – Site Bilans GES (accessed September 7, 2022)
Calculations of CO2e emissions per fuel per 100 km driven :
Fuel | Gasoline | Diesel | Electricity |
Emission factor | 2,7 | 3,1 | 0,06 |
Emission factor’s unity | kg CO2e/ l | Kg CO2e/ kWh | |
Average fuels’ consumption | 7,1 | 6,1 | 20 |
Unity of average fuel consumption | l/ 100 km | kWh/ 100 km | |
CO2 emission | 19,17 | 18,91 | 1,21 |
Unité of CO2 emission | kg CO2e/ 100 km | ||
Electricity production and regulation
[6] Electricity production in France in 2019 (accessed on September 7, 2022) https://bilan-electrique-2020.rte-france.com/production-production-totale/
[7] Presentation of the objectives of the Law on Energy Transition and Green Growth (accessed on September 6, 2022) Ecologie : transition énergétique, croissance verte | vie-publique.fr
[8] Wind power generation (accessed October 4, 2022) L’éolien – Ademe
[9] Overview of renewable electricity as of December 31, 2020 (accessed October 4, 2022) panorama-de-lelectricite-renouvelable-au-31-decembre-2020.pdf (enedis.fr)
Additional capacity connected each year from 2010 to 2019 in MW by energy :
| Wind power | Solar power |
2010 | 1,189 | 688 |
2011 | 952 | 1,706 |
2012 | 821 | 1,143 |
2013 | 622 | 639 |
2014 | 1,155 | 931 |
2015 | 1,012 | 899 |
2016 | 1,437 | 577 |
2017 | 1,788 | 883 |
2018 | 1,584 | 890 |
2019 | 1,378 | 1,021 |
Average installed capacity over 10 years (MW) | 1193.8 | 937.7 |
Average installed capacity over 10 years (GW) | 1.2 | 0.9 |
