Thermal, electric and hybrid vehicles... What is their place in the French car fleet?
Greenhouse gas emissions by sector in 2019
No Data Found
Transportation is responsible for almost a third of national greenhouse gasemissions2. In 2019, it was the sector with the highest emissions. Private vehicles are responsible for more than half the sector'semissions3, or 16% of national emissions.
In 2020, there were 38.4 million cars on the road, of which 98% powered by fossil fuels4, with a carbon intensity of 19.2 kgCO2 per 100 km travelled.
In comparison, electric vehicles emit 1.2 kgCO2 per 100 km5, 16 times less than a combustion engine vehicle. This reduced carbon footprint in use, with a suitable battery and a light vehicle, was the reason for the European institutions' decision.
Breakdown of greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector by type of trip in 2019 (Mt CO2e)
No Data Found
What if all cars went electric in 2050?
Let's imagine that in 2050, there are only electric cars on the road in France. What would be the additional electricity demand if we converted all the thermal cars in the 2020 fleet to their electric counterparts? What would be the impact of electrifying our mobility systems on our energy consumption?
Share of each energy source in electricity generation in 2019
No Data Found
Additional demand of 150 TWh/year
Assuming that it takes 20 kWh to travel 100 km, and that each car travels 20,000 km every year, the annual consumption of an electric vehicle is 4,000 kWh. In 2020, there will be almost 38 million combustion engine vehicles on the road. If they all go electric by 2050, 150 TWh will be needed to power them. The amount of electricity generated was 532 TWh in20196, meeting the needs of electric vehicles would mean increasing production by 30%..
150 TWh, yes, but how?
How can we produce 150 TWh more each year? Which sources to choose? To illustrate the quantity of electricity to be supplied, each source is studied separately. To facilitate the calculations, we have not taken into account the storage of renewable energies.
In 2019, 71% of the electricity produced in France came from nuclear power, and 20% from renewable energies. The French Law on Energy Transition and Green Growth (LTECV) calls for nuclear power to be capped at50%7 by 2025, thanks to the increase and diversification of renewable energies.
In the case of nuclear power
In 2020, 56 nuclear reactors were in service, generating 380 TWh of electricity. Assuming that the power of each of these reactors is similar, we can estimate that one nuclear reactor produces around 6.7 TWh in a year. So, to produce 150 TWh per year, 22 reactors are needed, for a total of 78 reactors in 2050.
If a nuclear reactor were installed every 5 years, the target would be reached by 2140 .
Furthermore, the LTECV caps French nuclear power at 63GW7. With an additional 85 GW needed to reach 150 TWh/year, it is impossible to rely solely on this source of electricity.
In the case of wind power
Around 8,800 wind turbines produced 35 TWh of electricity in20208. Using the same reasoning as above, an additional 37,750 wind turbines would have to be installed to generate the 150 TWh used by electric vehicles each year.
At an installation rate of 1.2 GW peryear9, we would have to wait until 2080 to reach the production needed to run electric vehicles, i.e. 30 years after the target date of 2050 .
In the case of all-solar systems
The equivalent of 40 km² of solar panels were installed in 2020, producing 12TWh9. 1 km² of solar panels produces around 0.3 TWh. To produce 150 TWh by 2050, an additional 500 million m² will have to be installed. If we continue at the current rate of 0.9GW/year9, the target output will not be reached until 2165.
To conclude
Considerable demand
Replacing the fleet of combustion-powered vehicles with electric ones leads to a consequent increase in electricity demand. As things stand, and at the current rate of installation, it is not possible to satisfy this demand, whatever the source of electricity studied. A diverse energy mix is therefore essential to optimize the number of installations. However, at current installation rates, by 2050 we could be installing 6 reactors, 18,000 wind turbines and 100 km² of solar panels, for an additional output of 135 TWh. Assuming that all this additional electricity is used solely for electric mobility, this would still leave a shortfall of 15 TWh. In any case, this intensification of electricity demand is not in line with the sober trajectory put forward in the Law for Energy Transition and Green Growth.
On the road to all-electricity?
In addition to the increase in demand, other issues need to be taken into account in the transition to all-electricity: the availability of resources to build production units and lithium batteries, the availability of recharging stations, etc. These issues call into question our production and consumption patterns and, in particular, invite us to rethink the way we travel. This rethinking also involves adapting infrastructures. For example, public transport networks need to be developed and made accessible to a larger proportion of the population.
And where does WIND my ROOF fit in?
It also shows that to satisfy this growing demand for electricity, all means of production must be taken into account. In particular, the development of decentralized energies, such as our rooftop wind turbines. By producing clean electricity locally, these solutions help to make buildings more energy self-sufficient!
Further information
Tensions over battery raw materials
Preconceived ideas about electric cars
Availability of electric car charging stations
Sources
Image credit
Image credit: Gerd Altmann. https://pixabay.com/fr/photos/station-de-charge-elektrotankstelle-4636710/
Members' vote
[1] MEPs vote to ban combustion engine vehicles in 2035 (accessed September 9, 2022) https://www.vie-publique.fr/en-bref/285406-les-eurodeputes-votent-linterdiction-des-moteurs-thermiques-en-2035
Breakdown of greenhouse gas emissions
[2] Breakdown of GHG emissions by sector of activity in 2019 (consulted on September 7, 2022) https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/2015759#tableau-figure1
[3] Breakdown of transport sector GHG emissions in 2019 (consulted on September 7, 2022) GHG emissions from transport | Chiffres clés du climat 2022 (developpement-durable.gouv.fr)
Fleet emissions
[4] Passenger car fleet by energy type at January1, 2020 (consulted on September 6, 2022) : Données sur le parc automobile français au 1er janvier 2021 | Données et études statistiques (developpement-durable.gouv.fr). Data used: parc_voitures_particulieres_2011_a_2021.xlsx (live.com)
[5] Detailed calculation of emissions from petrol, diesel and electric vehicles.
Sources :
- Electricity consumption of an electric car (consulted on September 7, 2022) In 2040, will the grid be able to handle the consumption of electric vehicles? (selectra.info)
- Average fuel consumption of a combustion-powered passenger car in 2019 (consulted on September 7, 2022) - Gasoline consumption of cars: evolution since 2004 | Statista
- Emission factors ADEME - Bilans GES website (consulted on September 7, 2022)
Calculations ofCO2eemissions by fuel per 100 km driven :
Fuel | Petrol | Diesel | Electricity |
Emission factor | 2,7 | 3,1 | 0,06 |
Emission factor unit | kg CO2e/ l | Kg CO2e/ kWh | |
Average fuel consumption | 7,1 | 6,1 | 20 |
Unit of average fuel consumption | l/ 100 km | kWh/ 100 km | |
CO2 emissions | 19,17 | 18,91 | 1,21 |
CO2 emission unit | kg CO2e/ 100 km |
Electricity generation and regulations
[6] Electricity generation in France in 2019 (consulted on September 7, 2022) https://bilan-electrique-2020.rte-france.com/production-production-totale/
[7] Presentation of the objectives of the Law on Energy Transition and Green Growth (consulted on September 6, 2022) Ecologie : transition énergétique, croissance verte | vie-publique.fr
[8] Electricity generation by wind power (consulted on October 4, 2022) Wind power - Ademe
[9] Panorama de l'électricité renouvelable au 31 décembre 2020 (consulted on October 4, 2022) panorama-de-lelectricite-renouvelable-au-31-decembre-2020.pdf (enedis.fr)
Additional capacity connected each year from 2010 to 2019 in MW by energy :
Wind | Solar | |
2010 | 1189 | 688 |
2011 | 952 | 1706 |
2012 | 821 | 1143 |
2013 | 622 | 639 |
2014 | 1155 | 931 |
2015 | 1012 | 899 |
2016 | 1437 | 577 |
2017 | 1788 | 883 |
2018 | 1584 | 890 |
2019 | 1378 | 1021 |
Power average installed over 10 years (MW) | 1193,8 | 937,7 |
Power average installed over 10 years (GW) | 1,2 | 0,9 |